Posted by: reddiva | June 17, 2010

It’s A Toss Up

As we prepare for Utah’s Primary Election and the runoffs in other states on June 22, I am encouraged today to read some information from CQ Politics.

The current projections for the U.S. Senate races show eight “toss up” states where the incumbent is not considered “safe.”

Colorado Michael Bennet, D First appointed in 2009

Illinois Roland W. Burris, D First appointed in 2009 (Burris announced he would not seek election in 2010 following his appointment to the seat)

Kentucky Jim Bunning, R First elected in 1998

Missouri Christopher S. Bond, R First elected in 1986

Nevada Harry Reid, D First elected in 1986

New Hampshire Judd Gregg, R First elected in 1992

Ohio George V. Voinovich, R First elected in 1998

Pennsylvania Arlen Specter, D First elected in 1980 |(Defeated by Rep. Joe Sestak, D, in primary on May 18, 2010)

In Colorado, Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet is facing a fierce challenge from Andrew Romanoff.  Mr. Romanoff gives some interesting facts on his website showing a 21-point margin between him and the incumbent in the Colorado State Assembly balloting results for the coveted “top line” on the Primary ballot.  Romanoff has tripled his lead since the precinct caucuses.

If Senator Bennet happens to scrape a win in the Colorado Primary to be held on August 10, he must then face the Republican Primary winner between candidates Ken Buck and Jane Norton.

Not to be left out of the fracas, Illinois will select their U.S. Senator without benefit of the incumbent who has already stated he is retiring at the end of 2010.  The February 2nd Primary result will match Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R).  This one is seriously a tossup because of the fact that the Republican Mark Kirk is a current Illinois Congressman (CD-10) who is thought to be less conservative than some voters would prefer.

Rasmussen showed a slight lead for Kirk at 42% over Giannoulias at 39% in the June 9 poll.

The Kentucky Senate seat vacated by the retirement of incumbent Republican Jim Bunning is one of the most ridiculously close elections I have witnessed so far.  Rand Paul won the Republican Primary to the consternation of many conservative Republicans in Kentucky because of his socially liberal ties to the Libertarian Party and Liberty Candidates through his father, Ron Paul.   Jack Conway is only an option to the Democrats – no Republican crossovers that I can tell at all – because of his pro-abortion stance among other reasons.

In the June 1 poll, Rasmussen currently gives the nod to Paul 49% to Conway’s 41%.  The interesting note here is the drop Rand Paul has suffered immediately following the Republican Primary win.  At that time, he was a solid 25 point lead.  His usual cloudy and incoherent answers to media questions have caused the 10% drop in his polling numbers with Conway increasing by 7%.

The Missouri August 3rd Primary will be interesting to watch.  The Republican incumbent, “Kit” Bond, has announced his retirement, so that leaves it open for the current slate of 12 Republican candidates and two Democratic candidates as well as a handful of other party candidates.

Then of course there is the drama in Nevada.  Current Democratic Senator Harry Reid is trailing in the polls to his Republican challenger, Sharron Angle who surprised practically everyone with a come-from-behind win in the Republican Primary.  Presently, Ms. Angle holds an 11% lead over Krazy Harry 50% to 39%.  A November win by Ms. Angle will shock the Democratic world in ways I can only dream about.

The Reid website is a smoke and mirrors projection of Republican voters swarming around Harry Reid because of the conservative views of Ms. Angle which Reid’s campaign refers to as “extreme.”  It seems they still just don’t get it.

Another retiring incumbent, Gregg Judd (R), has left the September Primary in New Hampshire up for grabs.  Currently leading the charge is Republican Kelly Ayotte over Democrat Paul Hodes.  However, it should be noted that the top three Republican challengers all are ahead of Hodes in the latest Rasmussen poll from the middle of May.

Ohio joined the list of states with retiring incumbents thanks to the retirement of Republican incumbent, George Voinovich.  The May 3rd Primary set the slate for the November election with Republican Rob Portman facing Democrat Lee Fisher as well as several smaller party candidates.

The June1 Rasmussen poll still shows the two frontrunners in a dead heat. This one is definitely going to come down to the wire.

Finally, Pennsylvania is encouraging because of the defeat of incumbent and party-switcher Arlen Specter at the hands of Primary voters in favor of Democrat Joe Sestak.  His Republican opponent is Pat Toomey who overwhelmingly defeated his Republican challenger in the Primary.

Toomey sports a lead of 7 % (45% – 38%) over Sestak according to the June 4th Rasmussen poll.

Now you can tell why I am greatly encouraged by this report.  In all of the “toss up” states categorized by CQ Politics, the Republican either leads or is running very closely with the Democrat.  If the Republican should be successful in all eight of these “toss up” states that could feasibly bring the Republican side of the Senate to 49 to the Democrat side at 51 according to CQ Politics.

I cannot help wondering how many bills like the health care fiasco the Senate would pass with numbers like these.  Can you say, “NONE?”



  1. Genius. Pure genius evaluation!

    In KY, consider this. Paul’s alienation of Conservatives will hurt him. I, and others I know simply will note vote for him, Nether will vote for Conway. Don’t need to. there are 1.54 DEMS per REPS here. A solid DEM tuenout will get Conway elected.
    Paul certainly isn’t trying to woo DEMS. In fact, he doesn’t ever share what he’ll do for KY. Why would they vote for him?
    Paul’s candidacy will be a huge factor in the Senate seat becoming a “D” in November.

    • Pavulon1,

      You are so sweet to say such nice things. Tell me something… when I was young and looking for a husband, where the heck were you??? Oh.. that’s right.. I remember.. you weren’t born yet..



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